The future development trend of the car

  Industry News     |      2019-01-17
The power of new energy vehicles comes from electronic or hydrogen fuel. There is no burning of fossil fuels during use, and it will not pollute the environment. Therefore, it has been encouraged and supported by governments around the world. The following are the top ten development trends of new energy vehicles. Let's take a look!
Trend Forecast 1: Production and sales spiral
At present, China's new energy vehicle production and sales scale is the world's leading, and has become the world's largest producer of new energy vehicles in the past three years, with cumulative production and sales exceeding 1.8 million.
Among them, in 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 794,000 and 777,000 respectively, up 53.8% and 53.3% respectively, and the market share was 2.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous year.
Although doubts are inevitable, with the support of the policy, the new energy vehicle has been set and will only continue to move forward. From the data point of view, China's new energy vehicle market demand spiraled upwards, 500,000 in 2017 and 800,000 in 2018, and is expected to reach more than 1 million in 2019, and 2 million in 2020.
The small target of 1 million production and sales has a symbolic significance for China's new energy automobile industry. If realized, it means that the new energy automobile industry chain can support the scale of millions of orders.
Trend Forecast 2: The New Energy Vehicle Industry Is Changing
The pattern of the new energy automobile industry is taking shape. Traditional auto companies such as GAC, BAIC, BYD, and Geely are leading the way. At the same time, the new forces of vehicles such as Weilai, Weimar and Xiaopeng are engulfing capital and technology and entering a completely different path.
Traditional car companies accelerate the transformation of layout
In 2019, the global coverage of BYD's new energy vehicles will be expanded from 200 to 400, with a total of less than 100,000 yuan. In addition, BYD will add 30,000 charging facilities next year.
Beiqi New Energy released the “Qingtianzhu Plan”. It is planned to launch from 2019 to 2022 in Beijing, Xiamen and Guangzhou, and set up public transport operation platforms and echelon storage and transportation platforms for each city, and build 1,000 power stations. Operating 100,000 vehicles.
Geely will develop a variety of electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid models, and plans to introduce more than five new energy models in 2019.
Building a new force to build a factory
Weilai Auto financing reached 14 billion yuan and is preparing to build a production base in Shanghai. Weilai Auto has hired eight banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, to prepare for the listing in the US during the year. It is reported that the IPO is about $1 billion to $2 billion. In terms of factories, Weilai Automobile has started to build a production base in Jiading District, Shanghai, with a planned land area of ??800 mu.
From 2019, Weimar Motors plans to gradually introduce it to the market at a rate of more than one new car per year. The first batch of production cars of Weimar Automobile will be launched in the middle of this year. The new car will be equipped with Baidu Apollo system, priced at around 200,000 yuan, and the mileage of comprehensive working conditions can reach 450 kilometers.
The new energy auto industry is changing. Whether it is the traditional car enterprises to accelerate the transformation of the layout, or the new forces to build a factory, will promote the new energy auto industry to a new prosperity.
Trend Forecast 3: The prospect of shared cars is bright and hidden
After experiencing the prosperity and cold winter of shared bicycles, the advantages and hidden dangers of sharing are self-evident. At present, most of the time-shared cars on the market are new energy vehicles. Although they are attracted by users with free and disposable control, the number of charging piles does not match the number of shared vehicles, and the lack of returning points leads to industry operation efficiency. Low, shared car is not convenient enough.
Even so, the Internet giants such as Mobai, Didi, and Meituan, and traditional automakers such as BAIC, SAIC, Shouqi Group and Geely Automobile are still entering the new energy-sharing auto industry. It can be said that the independent operation of relying on capital and the travel service relying on the vehicle manufacturers are currently the two main forces.
With the continuous expansion of the scale of shared car operations and the expansion of operating areas, the operational difficulty and operational pressure of shared vehicles continue to increase, and the industry's standard operation needs to be strengthened, such as the improvement of insurance, to develop individualized plans for enterprises or to force the purchase of carrier-level business. Insurance, only to let users have no worries, the future prospects can be long-term optimistic.
Trend Forecast 4: Commercial Vehicles Take the Lead
There are two forms of human transport: the flow of life and the flow of goods. In the field of new energy vehicles, commercial vehicles are expected to take the lead.
Bus electrification has been going on for many years, and the effective market for new energy buses is now near saturation. Taxi and logistics vehicles, as areas of government procurement and urban traffic control, are expected to usher in a new round of electrification boom.
As we all know, the recognized way for large cities to solve individual travel traffic is to reduce private cars and develop public transportation systems. In the same way, the most effective way to solve the travel of goods is to create a “cargo bus system”.
Solve the inherent shortcomings such as battery life, charging, and one-time loading. The "goods delivery" system is perfect. It is no longer necessary for logistics companies to have a large number of self-owned vehicles. The goods are scheduled to arrive on the route and arrive at the sub-station to form an efficient, Orderly, reduce idle and wasted urban cargo capacity systems, thus forming a new round of new energy boom.
Trend Forecast 5: The supporting industry is gradually improved
During the two sessions, Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, publicly stated: "Charging infrastructure is still a shortcoming for our development."
Although the new energy automobile industry has begun to take shape and the industrial chain is relatively complete, with the continuous growth of the number of new energy vehicles, the contradiction of insufficient supply of charging infrastructure has intensified, and the overall construction scale has been seriously lagging behind.
The data shows that as of the end of 2018, China's various types of charging piles reached 450,000, the pile-to-pile ratio was about 3.8:1, and there was still a big gap from the national plan of 1:1. Charging technology is the key to the development of electric vehicles. In the future, the charging trend of electric vehicles will be combined with “Private AC charging pile daily slow charging” and “Public fast charging and charging”.
The next step is to accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure, encourage wireless charging, smart charging, high-power charging technology innovation and industrialization, and support the construction and operation of hydrogen refueling stations.
Trend Prediction 6: Combine with artificial intelligence and move toward unmanned driving
The scene of being trafficked by hackers in "Speed ??and Passion 8" is no longer a science fiction. Artificial Intelligence + New Energy = Future Cars. The Internet of Vehicles + New Energy will completely change the way of travel, while driving a hot pot while driving a car is no longer far away.
To this end, industry insiders suggest that speeding up research and introducing operational policies, laying a legal foundation for accelerating the industrialization of self-driving cars from the national level; strengthening the prevention of large risks caused by hackers and critical data being controlled; speeding up the deployment of autonomous vehicles Operation, promote the planning and construction of intelligent road infrastructure, and accelerate the transformation of a new urban traffic environment for autonomous vehicles.
It is conceivable that in the future, a driverless car powered by electric power or solar energy or other clean fuels and controlled by artificial intelligence will not only have the "friends" attribute, but also chat with you to perceive your various emotions; or your exclusive servant For your "running legs" to buy coffee, pick up at the airport.
Trend Forecast 7: New Energy Technology Route with Chinese Characteristics
New energy vehicles include: hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), pure electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell vehicles (FCEV), hydrogen engine vehicles, and other new energy vehicles such as gas vehicles, alcohol ether vehicles, and solar vehicles.
At present, the pure electric strategy has achieved initial results, but the drawbacks have begun to emerge. Therefore, the technical advantages of fuel cells, plug-in type, and extended program as technical supplements in certain application fields will receive more policy attention and support.
Focusing on the future, we will focus on breaking through the core technologies of key components such as power batteries, high specific power and high durability fuel cell stacks. Distributed renewable energy will become the main energy source for power generation, and intelligent charging will lead to tremendous changes in the energy structure.
Trend Prediction 8: The power battery recycling system is gradually improved
At present, there are many problems in the recycling of new energy vehicle power batteries in China: 1. The laws and regulations on recycling are not perfect; 2. The recycling system is still not perfect; 3. The recycling technology and process level need to be improved; 4. The recycling cost is high, It is difficult to make a profit.
At the same time, the new energy vehicle power battery recycling system is accelerating, and the “New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Recycling Pilot Implementation Plan” is completed. This will systematically sort out and stipulate the standardization of power battery structure design, connection method, process technology and integrated installation. At the same time, strengthen the corresponding laws and regulations on the recycling, transportation and storage of used power batteries, and further implement the power battery coding system and traceability system.
At the same time, the recycling of new energy vehicle batteries is regulated by subsidies. The recycling of new energy vehicles' power batteries will gradually be standardized, providing new growth drivers for the development of new energy vehicles.
Trend Prediction 9: Low-speed electric vehicles come back
Previously, relying on the subsidy policy support, the pure electric A0, A00 level market with low prices, license advantages have a certain impact on the low-speed car market, harvesting a large number of low-speed car users, but due to the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy policy adjustment, the battery life Mileage is forced to upgrade, vehicle costs are expected to increase significantly, and some models that rely too much on subsidies will quit.
At the same time, low-speed electric vehicles are expected to make a comeback with the advantage of not relying on subsidies and temporarily not needing to be on the cards. In the third- and fourth-tier cities with relatively loose traffic management policies, they will usher in a new round of rapid growth and occupy half of the country.
Low-speed electric vehicles have the ability to replace the same level of fuel vehicles, but lack of technical standards and standard management, battery life standards, battery attenuation, SME products without after-sales service, etc. are also prominent problems, although occupying third- and fourth-tier cities, but low-speed electric vehicles If you want to truly win the recognition of the consumer groups and have a broader development, you still need to increase investment in after-sales service.
Trend Forecast 10: Channel Model Innovation
Various sales and promotion models for new energy vehicles are emerging, including direct sales, distribution, operations, etc. With the online and offline integration of automobile channels and services, the new retail model dominated by e-commerce has become a new cusp.
However, the channel model is different for different user groups. Some analysts pointed out that users in the first- and second-tier markets are more concentrated and generally have experience in car purchase. The mode of direct-operating experience stores is more recognized. The users in the third- and fourth-tier cities are relatively dispersed, and many first-time car purchases, the traditional 4S shop model reliability. higher.
In addition, some vehicle and charging facility operators are also exploring the way to sell vehicles by providing car or charging services to potential users, thus forming a series of entire industrial chains.